The UFC 210 will go underway this Saturday from the KeyBank Center, in Buffalo, New York. It’s not a usual scenario for the UFC, but the fight lineup is good enough to give the fans a great night of punches, knockouts and quality fights.
Of course, the main event will steal all the headlines. Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson will go head-to-head for the second time. This time Cormier jumps out as the underdog.
Let’s take a look at the UFC 210 Betting Picks:
Daniel Cormier vs Anthony Johnson
- Light Heavyweight Championship 5 rounds
- Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
- Money Line: Daniel Cormier (-110) vs Anthony Johnson (-120)
- Total: 1.5 rounds
The second battle between Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson is scheduled for this weekend in the main event of the UFC 210. The first time they met ended with a Cormier’s submission win for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title back in 2015.
The price per head bookie listed Johnson as the favorites to collect payback win. He’s -120 against Cormier’s -110.
One might think the best pay per head sportsbooks are undervaluing Cormier. After all, he won the first match and has one loss on his resume. Cormier’s only loss was against Jon Jones back in January 2015. He’s 18-1 with 44{c44f53148ca15068631231900821c84f41217af0237910c947d4979ff2d91aa8} of his win coming off KO/TKO. Since losing to Jones, he beat Anthony Johnson, Alexander Gustafsson, and Anderson Silva.
The thing is many believe Cormier was luck in the first meeting against Johnson. Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson is a pure attacking fighter. He doesn’t have a second act, which could be viewed as a good or bad asset. It depends on the position.
Johnson will go directly to his opponent. He’s perhaps the most terrifying puncher in the entire UFC. 73{c44f53148ca15068631231900821c84f41217af0237910c947d4979ff2d91aa8} of his wins have come via KO/TKO and not once he has one via submission. He’s fast and slick in several ways. Yet, his power is the most petrifying advantage on his game. He will bruise opponents with the first few shots. And then, one of those will send them down, and there isn’t an easy way back.
Daniel Cormier is good on defense but not great. He absorbs 2.05 punches per minute, according to the official data from the UFC. While that number might not be a problem against many opponents, it is against Johnson. Cormier won’t have time to put attention to the details in this fight. Between defending himself from a fight-ending punch and trying to attack, things could get complicated to handle for Cormier.
Johnson beat Jimi Manuwa, Ryan Bader, and Glover Teixeira since losing to Cormier in the UFC 187. Only Manuwa made it to the second round.
The sports bookie software made Johnson the favorite not only because of his attacking abilities, but also the defense. To Johnson down is not an easy task. The percentage of total takedowns avoided for Johnson has been set at a high 79{c44f53148ca15068631231900821c84f41217af0237910c947d4979ff2d91aa8}. Of course, Cormier did it once ending him with a submission, but don’t count it for a second time.
For Cormier to pull a second win in a row over Johnson, Daniel will need to set up a takedown. There is no way he wins this fight punch by punch.
UFC Betting Picks: Johnson -120.
Gegard Mousasi vs Chris Weidman
- Middleweight 3 rounds
- Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
- Money Line: Gegard Mousasi (-130) vs, Chris Weidman (+110)
- Total: 1.5 rounds
The second best fight of the UFC 210 card will have two fighters going into different direction lately in their careers. Gegard Mousasi is 41-6-2 on his career, winning the last four outing in a row. His recent form made the pph services put him as the favorite for Saturday night.
Mousasi’s recent win came against Uriah Hall, Vitor Belfort, Thiago Santos and Thales Leites. Three of those four wins came via KO/TKO. 59{c44f53148ca15068631231900821c84f41217af0237910c947d4979ff2d91aa8} of Gegard Mousasi’s wins have come via KO/TKO. That’s particularly bad news for Weidman, who allows 2.9 punches per minute.
Chris Weidman enters this meeting with a 13-2-0 record, but he has lost his last two outings. Perhaps his most painful defeat was against Luke Rockhold when he lost the title in the UFC 194. In 2016 he only fought against Yoel Romero and ended on the wrong side, losing via KO in the third round.
Mousasi and Weidman are trending in different directions. Mousasi’s punching and attacking style is what Weidman’s has suffered over the last two losses. The per head sportsbooks didn’t take a chance with Weidman this time.
UFC Betting Picks: Mousasi -130.
Patrick Cote vs Thiago Alves
- Welterweight 3 rounds
- Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
- Money Line: Patrick Cote (+130) vs Thiago Alves (-160)
- Total: 2.5 rounds
Patrick Cote is listed as the underdog by the bookmaker software to win on Saturday. He’s a 37-years old veteran with a 24-10-0 record who can win via different ways. Donald Cerrone defeated him in his last appearance on June 18, 2016, after three rounds. The KO loss ended three fights winning streak he had going.
Thiago Alves is four years younger than Cote and the favorite to win. The book making services were not willing to make Alves a slight favorite. They went and sent the hammer putting his win at -160.
Alves has lost his last two fights, but this is the type of match that would allow him to bounce back. During UFC 205 he lost via unanimous decision against Jim Miller and before that Carlos Condit had beat him with second-round TKO – doctor’s stoppage. Condit obliterated Alves, sending 75 strikes against just 34 over two rounds. It is safe to say Alves won’t find the same problems against Cote.
Cote would try to get close to Alves in order to pull either a strike of a submission move to give him a chance. Alves has some nasty low kicks to keep Cote away.
UFC Betting Picks: Alves -160
The rest:
- Charles Oliveira +210 vs Will Brooks -280 (Lightweight 3 rounds)
- Sean Strickland +250 vs Kamaru Usman -350 (Welterweight 3 rounds)
- Charles Rosa +180 vs Shane Burgos -230 (Featherweight 3 rounds)
- Desmond Green +190 vs Josh Emmett -240 (Lightweight 3 rounds)
- Gregor Gillespie -230 vs Andrew Holbrook +180 (Lightweight 3 rounds)
- Irene Aldana +130 vs Katlyn Chookagian -160 (Bantamweight 3 rounds)
- Jan Blachowicz -130 vs Patrick Cummins +100 (Light Heavyweight 3 rounds)
- Jenel Lausa +325 vs Magomed Bibulatov -450 (Flyweight 3 rounds)
- Mike De La Torre +325 vs Myles Jury -450 (Flyweight 3 rounds)
- Pearl Gonzalez +200 vs Cynthia Calvillo -260 (Strawweight 3 rounds)